UBS: Informative Underlying Indicators

Global Cyclical Growth Factors

FIXED INCOME: Market-Based Monetary Policy Factors

• Range on y-axis from bottom to top is dovish/loosening to hawkish/tightening

US Equity vs. Treasury Volatility Differentials, Return Correlation

US 10Y Breakeven Yields and Commodity Prices

US Treasury Curve PCA Analysis

US Rate Implied, Historical Volatility Comparisons

Market-Based and Economic Data-Based Trend Inflation Deviation Factors

FX: Broad USD Indicators

COMMODITIES: Gold Regression Residuals

CRYPTO: BTC/USD Relevant Macro Correlations

BTC/USD Sensitivity to Financial Conditions Changes

• Financial conditions indices are typically constructed such that positive/rising values indicate tightening. Ex-ante, one would expect negative sensitivity readings in an environment of tight crypto<->macro market linkages.

BTC Exchange Net Flows

ETH Centralized Exchange Net Flow Metrics

ETH Centralized Exchange Net Flow Metrics